Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACI)/.52
• (AZZ)/.70
• (TFC)/.78
• (VZ)/1.12
• (ZION)/.95
  

After the Close: 

• (BRO)/1.07
• (CDNS)/1.13
• (CALX)/.20
• (CLF)/.22
• (CR)/1.13
• (HXL)/.42
• (NUE)/3.67
• (PKG)/1.68
• (PNFP)/1.54
• (SAP)/1.06
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Maxim Group Mining/Processing Conference, (HBI) annual meeting, (CR) annual meeting, (HPQ) annual meeting, (CUZ) annual meeting, (AVGO) annual meeting, (FSS) annual meeting and the (CHTR) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -4.9
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 74.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +48.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$51.8M
  
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 51.5% (+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.4 -2.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.3 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,731.2 -1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (Fear) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.7 -2.6%
  
• Vix 18.6 +3.2%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -4.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 71.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.5 +2.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.88%.

• S&P 500 futures -.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.52%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.06 +23.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.7 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 -.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.2 +2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +31.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -11.8%

• NYSE Arms .88 +1.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$5.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 -.12%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.9 -.65%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.5 -1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.4 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.7 +.5%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 145.4 +.03%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.09%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 773.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.4 +2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.9 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(61 of 500 reporting) +8.4% -1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.21 -.03:  Growth Rate +13.0% unch., P/E 20.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.66 +.08: Growth Rate +30.5% unch., P/E 31.1 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 +9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 84.8%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 58.5%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +99 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.5% 2) Semis -1.6% 3) Steel -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ROAD, MU, BIO, BHVN, CDNS, TSLA, UHS, ADSK, BJ, TRML, BRKR, STVN, ITCI, FR, THC, CSIQ, SNA, SNV, KYTX, EFX, RTO, LVS, FOR and EYPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLI 2) LVS 3) JBLU 4) HTZ 5) CART
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNV 2) EFX 3) PRI 4) HCA 5) INOD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLY 3) XLE 4) ITB 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.5% 2) Insurance +1.2% 3) Homebuilders +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DJT, CLSK, MEG, GPC, BCYC, GCT, DUOL, ALLY, OSCR, MAN, SNAP, IRDM, DAWN, LFMD, EH, MSTR, ALK, BSY, UAL, ERO, DT, EL, MUX, OZK, LBRT, MWA and COF
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) CAN 3) GLW 4) XLI 5) IP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MIGI 2) BMI 3) GPC 4) DUOL 5) IRDM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) VGT 3) IYW 4) XRT 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume