Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Retail Sales Ex Autos Rise Most Since January, Mortgage Applications Surge

- Advance Retail Sales for November rose 1.0% versus estimates of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .1% decline in October.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for November rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised .3% decline in October.
BOTTOM LINE: Retail Sales in the US rose moiré than forecast in November as consumer rushed to take advantage of early holiday discounts, Bloomberg said. Purchases excluding autos rose the most since January. Sales at electronics and appliances stores surged 4.6%. Purchases at non-store retailers, which includes online and catalog sales, gained 1.3%. Wage gains and low unemployment are the main reasons for continuing healthy consumer spending. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year earlier in November, almost four time the rate of the Consumer Price Index. The average price of a gallon of gas was $2.23 in November, about the same as the prior month. Gasoline prices plunged 27% from August through October. The ICSC and UBS Securities said yesterday that weekly retail sales rose at their fastest pace so far this holiday season last week. Mortgage applications surged 11.4% last week. This is the second time in less than three months that mortgage applications have seen weekly double digit percentage gains. The last time this happened was mid-2004. I continue to believe consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of US economic growth, will stay healthy over the intermediate-term as energy prices fall further, the job market remains healthy, stocks rise, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels, long-term rates remain low, irrational pessimism subsides and inflation decelerates.

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