Monday, February 12, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.96 -10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.11 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.02 -3.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.76 +2.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +65.7%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -30.30%
  • NYSE Arms .66 +14.33%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.53 -4.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 397.0 -2.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.17 -.92%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.40 -2.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 130.83 -4.55%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.40 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.25 +5.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.13 +.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.57% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 78.50 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.50 -3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.50 -3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +318 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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