Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, November 20, 2017

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.50 -.5 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.65 -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ADI)/1.36
  • (BURL)/.66
  • (CPB)/.97
  • (CHS)/.12
  • (CBRL)/1.85
  • (DLTR)/.90
  • (DSW)/.53
  • (DSX)/-.19
  • (EV)/.70
  • (JEC)/.82
  • (LOW)/1.03
  • (MDT)/1.03
  • (PDCO)/.54
  • (SIG)/.16
  • (CPRT)/.27
  • (GME)/.43
  • (GES)/.12
  • (HPE)/.28
  • (HPQ)/.44
  • (CRM)/.37
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October is estimated to rise to .2 versus .17 in September.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for October is estimated to rise to 5.4M versus 5.39M in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Retail Trade report, weekly US retail sales report and the PAAS analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Buyout Speculation, Yen Weakness, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.66 -6.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.77 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.96 +.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 16.28 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +13.3%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +10.13%
  • NYSE Arms 1.16 +11.43%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.77 -.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 -.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 50.41 -1.24%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.96 +1.02%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.95 +.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.86 unch.
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.42 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.50 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.67 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.26% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 61.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.47/Metric Tonne +1.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.30 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.0 -3.9 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.20 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +239 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -.8% 2) Biotech -.7% 3) Airlines -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ECH, LTM, BSAC, NTES, USLV, OMI, GPK, SQM, LGND and BIVV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MON 2) PSEC 3) PAH 4) QEP 5) DLTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PRTA 2) LGND 3) LYV 4) GAIN 5) CAH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.5% 2) Semis +1.4% 3) Disk Drives +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CAVM, MRVL, IVR, XNET, TLND, DCIX, DY, DQ, AWI, TCMD, AXTI, SQ, DAIO, ANF, CRCM, CRSP, TRNC, GNK, TRP, URGN, MTRX, SCVL, GKOS, SPSC, XOMA, DY, OSTK, HIBB, FIZZ, ESIO, AXDX, SC, IVR, ETM, SQ, SGMS, DPLO and SCVL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) URBN 2) ITB 3) CME 4) ADI 5) CAKE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ANF 2) HIBB 3) FIZZ 4) DLPH 5) HPE
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: